Expected utility theory and the tyranny of catastrophic risks
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Expected Utility Theory and the Tyranny of Catastrophic Risks
Expected Utility theory is not only applied to individual choices but also to ethical decisions, e.g. in cost-benefit analysis of climate change policy measures that affect future generations. In this context the crucial question arises whether EU theory is able to deal with ”catastrophic risks”, i.e. risks of high, but very unlikely losses, in an ethically appealing way. In this paper we show ...
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We introduce and analyze expected uncertain utility theory (EUU). A prior and an interval utility characterize an EUU decision maker. The decision maker transforms each uncertain prospect into an interval-valued prospect that assigns an interval of prizes to each state. She then ranks prospects according to their expected interval utilities. We define uncertainty aversion for EUU, use the EUU m...
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The expected utility/subjective probability model of risk preferences and beliefs has long been the preeminent model of individual choice under conditions of uncertainty. It exhibits a tremendous flexibility in representing aspects of attitudes toward risk, has a well-developed analytical structure, and has been applied to the analysis of gambling, games of strategy, incomplete information, ins...
متن کاملExpected Utility Theory
This is a chapter for the forthcoming Handbook of Rational and Social Choice, Paul Anand, Prasanta Pattanaik, and Clemens Puppe, eds., Oxford University Press, 2008. We review classic normative expected utility theory. Our goal is to frame the subsequent chapters (which consider more modern extensions to and deviations from this classic theory) in a way that is accessible to the nonspecialist b...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Ecological Economics
سال: 2012
ISSN: 0921-8009
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.03.007